So much is known about the Pittsburgh Steelers playoff situation on Sunday:
You are sure to be in the expanded field of seven teams that represent the AFC. You can win the division title if Cleveland loses to the New York Giants in prime time or if the 11-2 Steelers take on last place and the 2-10-1 Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night.
If the Steelers win the AFC North for the first time in three years, they’ll have at least one home game. And this year of the pandemic and its associated planning issues, the chance of staying home and enjoying the post-season comforts that come with it could weigh more heavily than a normal playoff year.
However, thanks to consecutive losses, the Steelers are no longer number one, and the chances of overtaking Kansas City 12-1 and saying goodbye on the first lap are good. It won’t be easy to knock on second place either, not with 10-3 Buffalo, who is just one game back and owns the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Even with a win in Cincinnati, there’s a chance the Steelers will drop to third or even fourth place. In the event Buffalo becomes second seed, the Steelers would keep third place even if they lost the last two games – assuming Tennessee wins the AFC South. If Indianapolis overtook Tennessee, the Steelers would be number 4 if they finish with an identical 12-4 record as the Colts.
A lot is decided in the AFC over the past three weekends, with six teams essentially battling for the five remaining berths. Here is a breakdown of the AFC playoff picture at Week 15. Las Vegas (7-7) and New England (6-7), while mathematically alive, are not included for the purposes of this discussion:
Kansas City
Recording: 12-1
Remaining games: in New Orleans (10-3); v Atlanta (4-9); LA chargers (4-9)
Conference report: 10-1
Chance of seed # 1: 95% (fivethirtyeight.com); 89% (New York Times)
What is at stake: The Chiefs can win the number 1 and a first-round reunion with a win in New Orleans, a loss for the Steelers in Cincinnati and a loss or a draw for Buffalo in Denver. A defeat in New Orleans would still leave Kansas City in the driver’s seat for the AFC’s top seed.
Steelers
Recording: 11-2
Remaining games: in Cincinnati (2-10-1); v Indianapolis (9-4); in Cleveland (9-4)
Conference report: 8-1
Chance of seed # 1: 5% (fivethirtyeight.com); 10% (New York Times)
What is at stake: The Chiefs, who only have one conference game left to catch for the top seed, is a long way to go, so the Steelers should focus on staying ahead of Buffalo for the second seed, which would potentially bring two home playoff games . A win in Cincinnati would be a step in that direction.
buffalo
Recording: 10-3
Remaining games: in Denver (5-8); in New England (6-7); Miami (8-5)
Conference report: 7-2
Chance of playoffs: 99% (fivethirtyeight.com; New York Times)
What is at stake: If the Bills beat Denver on Saturday, they’ll win the AFC East. They also end the division title with a loss in Miami, which means New England’s eleven-year run as division champions is over no matter what that weekend. If Baltimore somehow loses to 1-12 Jacksonville, Buffalo will make the playoffs regardless of its result against Denver on Saturday.
Tennessee
Recording: 9-4
Remaining games: versus Detroit (5-8); at Green Bay (10-3); in Houston (4-9)
Conference report: 7-4
Chance of playoffs: 97% (fivethirtyeight.com) 95% (New York Times)
What is at stake: The Titans defeated Detroit and lost Baltimore to Jacksonville. You can also secure a spot with a Sunday win, a loss to Miami, and a win to Cleveland. If the Titans beat the Texans in the season finale and finished on the same record as the Colts, they would win the AFC South based on a superior division record.
Indianapolis
Recording: 9-4
Remaining games: versus Houston (4-9); at Steelers (11-2); Jacksonville (1-12)
Conference report: 5-4
Chance of playoffs: 90% (fivethirtyeight.com); 84% (New York Times)
What is at stake: The Colts can’t win anything this weekend, but they are on the rise with four wins in their last five games. Her only loss during this period is to Tennessee. Unless the Titans stumble, the Colts’ trail for the postseason is likely to be via the wildcard route.
Cleveland
Recording: 9-4
Remaining games: at NY Giants (5-8); at NY Jets (0-13); v Steelers (11-2)
Conference report: 6-4
Chance of playoffs: 89% (fivethirtyeight.com); 87% (New York Times)
What is at stake: Cleveland can’t secure a spot on the wildcard this weekend, but the fact that the Browns are playing in a row at the Meadowlands gives them a good chance to end their 17-year playoff drought. The final against the Steelers could result in playoff seeding for both teams.
Baltimore
Recording: 8-5
Remaining games: v Jacksonville (1-12); versus NY Giants (5-8); in Cincinnati (2-10-1)
Conference report: 5-5
Chance of playoffs: 91% (fivethirtyeight.com); 77% (New York Times)
What is at stake: The Ravens have the simplest remaining schedule, playing teams with a total of 8 wins, 30 losses and one draw. That alone gives Baltimore a leg up on Miami.
Miami
Recording: 8-5
Remaining games: v New England (6-7); in Las Vegas (7-6); in Buffalo (10-3)
Conference report: 5-4
Chance of playoffs: 30% (fivethirtyeight.com); 47% (New York Times)
What is at stake: In contrast to the Ravens, the Dolphins no longer have simple games on the program. Your best shot is to win the next two, hoping Buffalo will rest the starters in week 17 and pray elsewhere for help.
Joe Rutter is a contributor to Tribune Review. You can contact Joe by email at jrutter@triblive.com or on Twitter.
Categories:
Sport | Steelers / NFL
More Steelers / NFL stories
Comments are closed, but trackbacks and pingbacks are open.