Now that the 2022 NFL season is on the horizon, the talking heads are all weighing in on All Pro picks, season records, and award predictions. I read these articles compulsively (and with some irritation), but it occurred to me a few years ago that we never did that for just the Pittsburgh Steelers. So below is a series of “awards” predictions that are specific to this Steelers team.
This will come in two editions: first, the traditional awards (e.g. MVP, Rookie of the Year), then the second will be invented by me (e.g. “Breakout Player,” “Addition by Subtraction/Best Loss”). I’ll include a short descriptor to each, and I’ll make a case for who I’ve picked below, but I’ve also included a poll for each listing, including “other” as an option (in case you feel like I missed an important choice). My goal is to start a few arguments in the comments section, and maybe help get Steelers Nation fired up and ready for the long haul ahead.
If there’s interest, I’ll probably revisit this at the end of the year, and maybe at mid-season as well.
In any case, please make arguments, leave suggestions, and otherwise hash this out in the comments. On with the show. Go Steelers.
P.S. The list got a little long, so in case you wanted to skip ahead, here’s the shorthand version (with my picks). Explanations and polls to follow.
MVP: T.J. Watt
Offensive POY: Najee Harris
Defensive POY: Watt
Rookie of the Year: George Pickens
Newcomer of the Year: Myles Jack
Comeback/Improved POY: Chase Claypool
Breakout Player: Alex Highsmith
Assistant Coach of the Year: Brian Flores
Game of the Year: Wk 1, at Bengals
MVP –
Whether it’s NFL MVP or Super Bowl MVP, league voters are often wildly inconsistent in how they define “most valuable.” For my part, I think of MVP as somewhere between “the team’s best player” and “the hardest to replace.” That is, the guy who, if you lost him you’d feel it the most; not just because his backups are bad, but because he brings something you can’t get anywhere else.
Poll
MVP
-
5%
Minkah Fitzpatrick
(10 votes)
-
5%
Mitchell Trubisky
(11 votes)
197 votes total
Vote Now
My Choice: T.J. Watt. Big Ben (my usual choice) is now a civilian, and T.J. Watt is now not only established as the NFL’s best defender, but also somehow still disrespected. If he stays healthy, I see no reason to believe Watt won’t have another monster year in 2022. Last season, T.J. made more game-changing plays than anyone else in the entire NFL (on either side of the ball); in fact, you can make the case that the Steelers would have lost at least four more games without #90 on the field. He should have been NFL MVP last year. But even though NFL voters have stars in their eyes for QBs, I don’t. He’s the Steelers MVP in my book.
Offensive Player of the Year –
I think of OPOY (or DPOY) as the player having the finest season. Stats matter (especially with OPOY) but so does the eyeball test. Which player will have the most impressive season in 2019? Here are my candidates:
Poll
Offensive Player of the Year
-
9%
Mitchell Trubisky
(18 votes)
-
12%
George Pickens
(23 votes)
-
6%
Diontae Johnson
(12 votes)
-
15%
Pat Freiermuth
(29 votes)
190 votes total
Vote Now
My Choice: Najee Harris. Whoever starts at QB for the bulk of the year might have a case here. And it sure looks like George Pickens is going to blow the doors off the house. But Najee Harris is going to be the engine that powers this team. Najee is already a star, and he’s going to get a lot of touches in 2022. With the Steelers downfield passing game getting a shot in the arm (in the form of Pickens and Calvin Austin — if Austin gets healthy), I’d look for Harris to get a lot of check-down passes as well as tough yards between the tackles. If he’s healthy (and that’s a frighteningly urgent “if” as the preseason winds down), he’s going to have a big year.
Defensive Player of the Year –
Stats can affect DPOY, but with interior linemen eating up blockers and shutdown corners never being challenged, the eyeball test is at least as important. Who will be the most impressive defender in black and gold?
Poll
Defensive Player of the Year
-
11%
Minkah Fitzpatrick
(21 votes)
-
1%
Akhello Witherspoon
(2 votes)
184 votes total
Vote Now
My Choice: T.J. Watt. I’m torn about this. I hate giving the same guy multiple awards (let’s spread the wealth), and I think Minkah Fitzpatrick might be the best safety in the league, and that Cam Heyward is one of the most underrated players of the era. But T.J. is on another plane.
Rookie of the Year –
This is always tough to predict. For every 2003, with Mike Logan starting all year and Troy Polamalu on the bench, there’s a 2013, with Larry Foote’s preseason injury and sixth round rookie Vince Williams in the lineup all year. This year, though, feels like a season where a rookie will be a legit star for the Steelers.
Poll
Rookie of the Year
-
75%
George Pickens
(137 votes)
-
1%
Calvin Austin III
(2 votes)
182 votes total
Vote Now
My Choice: George Pickens. There are a surprising number of options here. I LOVE that. But my choice is easy. If the Steelers offensive line can protect enough to allow Pickens to get downfield, he’s going to be exciting this year. I would never predict a Randy Moss rookie season (where Moss caught 17 touchdowns and the Vikings exploded as an offense). But, assuming there are enough footballs to go around, I’d predict Pickens’ basement looking like Chase Claypool’s rookie year. This kid has excellent hands, outstanding body control and field awareness, and a physicality that we haven’t seen in these parts since Hines Ward retired. (And frankly, Pickens might be, dare I say it, more physical than Ward, given the current NFL rules. Watch him destroy NFL corners who try to jam him at the line. That might be my favorite part of his game.) It’s a crime that he’s not playing with 2014-era Big Ben. Pickens on one side and AB on the other (with LeVeon Bell in the backfield) might have been good for 40 points per game…
Newcomer of the Year –
With the Steelers making a splash in the free agency and trading market this season, I wanted to acknowledge that not all newcomers who matter are rookies. Who’s going to be the best veteran pickup this season?
Poll
Newcomer of the Year
-
30%
Mitchell Trubisky
(51 votes)
-
1%
Mason Cole/James Daniels
(2 votes)
-
8%
Larry Ogunjobi
(14 votes)
-
4%
Gunner Olszewski
(8 votes)
168 votes total
Vote Now
My Choice: Myles Jack. There are actually a number of options here too. I’m optimistic about Larry Ogunjobi, and even though there were some rough preseasons for the offensive linemen and even Levi Wallace, I still reserve some cautious optimism there (at least in the long term). But Myles Jack is the real thing. The player across from him — be it Devin Bush or Robert Spillane — is another question. But I have high hopes for Jack, who’s old enough to understand the game well, and young enough to play with athleticism and put in a number of years. Outstanding pickup.
Comeback Player of the Year
The Steelers don’t have a lot of guys returning from significant injury, so I’m thinking of this as both “comeback from injury” and “comeback from poor play.”
Poll
Comeback Player of the Year
-
31%
Chase Claypool
(57 votes)
179 votes total
Vote Now
My Choice: Chase Claypool. This is kind of tricky, and I don’t feel great about it. I’d love to see Devin Bush prove me wrong. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tyson Alualu stabilize the D-Line enough to earn this award. But I think Claypool has matured a bit, and I’m gambling that he’ll feel the pressure from Pickens / Austin / Boykin / etc., and bust his tail this year. And if that’s true, he’ll have a bounce-back season we’ll all be proud of. It’s possible there won’t be enough footballs to go around, but we’ll see.
Breakout Player –
This is different than “comeback” because these players aren’t coming off injury or genuinely bad play, where a good season might be enough to be recognized. Instead, they’re players who I predict will come out of nowhere (or in some cases, out of average-ness) and stand at the cusp of greatness. These are players who are becoming stars this season.
Poll
Breakout Player
-
13%
Alex Highsmith
(22 votes)
-
16%
Akhello Witherspoon
(28 votes)
-
10%
George Pickens
(18 votes)
-
52%
Pat Freiermuth
(89 votes)
169 votes total
Vote Now
My Choice: Alex Highsmith. Confession: I picked Highsmith last year too, and was a little underwhelmed by his 2021 season. He played very well (finishing 8th in the NFL in tackles for loss), but only managed 6.0 sacks. If he’s healthy (I don’t like how often I’ve had to type that) I suspect his general play will remain above-the-line, but that his sack numbers this year will shoot upward. A stronger D-Line in front of him will help. But I also expect that the Steelers pass rush will be more evenly distributed — instead of T.J. Watt getting home over and over, I expect teams to scheme around T.J. and for Alex to be the beneficiary (as well as Ogunjobi, Heyward, Leal, and others). Given how much time Highsmith spent in opponent backfields last year, that could mean a bit-time leap this year. Here’s hoping.
Assistant Coach of the Year –
The Steelers coaching staff had some turnover, but not a lot. But Assistant Coach of the Year doesn’t have to be a new guy. It’s more like a cocktail of the “most important assistant,” “most successful assistant,” “most groundbreaking assistant,” and “assistant who made the best lemonade with the lemons he got dealt.”
Poll
Assistant Coach of the Year
-
53%
Brian Flores (LBs, Special Def. Assistant)
(81 votes)
-
25%
Matt Canada (Offensive Coordinator)
(38 votes)
-
3%
Pat Meyer (Offensive Line Coach)
(5 votes)
-
3%
Mike Sullivan (QBs Coach)
(6 votes)
-
3%
Karl Dunbar (Defensive Line Coach)
(6 votes)
-
8%
Frisman Jackson (WRs Coach)
(13 votes)
151 votes total
Vote Now
My Choice: Brian Flores. I expect Flores to walk away with this award, but I want to admit that this one is also a little tricky. The most important Assistant Coach may very well be Meyer (or Sullivan, depending on how the season goes). And the coaches who have the most fun this year will probably be Canada and Jackson. But I think Brian Flores has the best opportunity to put his stamp on an already-outstanding unit. Particularly if the Steelers suffer ANY defensive injuries, Flores’ creativity will be crucial to the team powering forward. I hope all these guys have big years.
Game of the Year –
Poll
Game of the Year
-
12%
Wk 1: at Cincinnati Bengals (season opener)
(18 votes)
-
9%
Wk 2: vs. New England Patriots (home opener)
(14 votes)
-
8%
Wk 5: at Buffalo Bills
(13 votes)
-
6%
Wk 6: vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(9 votes)
-
2%
Wk 10: vs. New Orleans Saints (following the bye)
(4 votes)
-
47%
Wk 14: vs. Baltimore Ravens
(71 votes)
-
10%
Wk 18: vs. Cleveland Browns (final game of season)
(15 votes)
148 votes total
Vote Now
My Choice: Week 1 against the Bengals. This is weird. I don’t really have a particular game that rings my bell this year. The Ravens games are always huge, but they don’t happen until very late in the season — week 14 is the first of the series. Pittsburgh faces the Browns (with Deshaun Watson) in week 18, but that’s, again, WAY down the line. Who knows what the circumstances will be by then? And I don’t see a lot of revenge games in here. The Patriots games have a lot less bang with Brady in Tampa. And the Buccs game has a lot less bang with Bruce Ariens retired and Antonio Brown on his couch. So I’ll go with the Bengals, who have won three in a row against the Steelers, and who are coming off of an AFC Title season. Did the Steelers do enough to raise their game against the Bengals this offseason? Week 1 should tell us.
I’ll be honest: I’m not buying the Bengals just yet. I think they got really lucky down the stretch last year, and were probably a bit of a mirage in the Super Bowl. They’re good (again, three in a row against the Steelers is no joke) but I’ll have to see them deliver before I believe they’re a new AFC power. So this game will mean something. The Steelers went 4-2 in the AFC North in 2021, sweeping both the Ravens and Browns. So those two Bengals losses (neither of which were particularly competitive) were big deals. If the Steelers could have split the series, Pittsburgh would have won the division and Cincinnati would have missed the playoffs. This game means business. I’ll be watching.
Okay, round two on the way…
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