Sit-Begin DFS Suggestions for Steelers Chargers
Special about Yahoo Sports
Yahoo is adding a single game offering to its daily fantasy football options in 2021. Yahoo has a roster construction of a “superstar” who scores with a 1.5 multiplier, while the remaining four FLEX roster spots collect points at the normal rate. This is a one-half point PPR rating and the “Superstar” level is not changed by the utility. All ratings and rules can be found here.
Depending on the type of competition we’re creating roster for, we’ll need to adjust our player selection strategy. When entering a tournament with a large number of participants, playing something other than the optimal line-up based on predictions is critically important. It is just as valuable to stand out from the rest of the field. Once we understand the type of roster we need to create for the specific competition you want to exclude, we can focus on player selection and work based on identifying combinations of players that could all collectively hit their respective caps on specific game environments. Slow, run-oriented defensive battles often allow completely different players to reach their maximum score than when a game is quick and easy to pass.
This Sunday, the 5-3-1 Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Los Angeles after a brutal 16-16 draw with Detroit, where they face the Chargers at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. Depending on events early on Sunday, both teams could battle for a chance to break into first place in their respective divisions with a win at kick-off.
Vegas total and spread
The over / under for this game is 46.5 points. The Chargers are preferred by 6 points, with an implicit grand total of 26.25 points, compared to the Steelers’ implicit grand total of 20.25. The Steelers’ implied total improved by about 0.75 points upon the announcement Ben Röthlisberger ($ 21) would return this week.
Receive updates on this story straight to your inbox
Please enter a valid email addressSuccess! You have subscribed to the Yahoo newsletter.
[Visit 4for4, where 92% of subscribers made the playoffs, for more]
The story goes on
weather
None Los Angeles SoFi Stadium has a dome.
Possible game flow scenarios
With Ben Röthlisberger ($ 21) officially activated from the Reserve / COVID-19 list, and Chase Claypool ($ 16) good to go after a week’s absence, the Steelers will be at full strength in Los Angeles. You will still have an uphill battle to rise offensively against the Chargers who have made it difficult for opposing passing attacks throughout the season and are second-best in the NFL for schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed opposing quarterbacks . Still, the overall advantage of Pittsburgh’s offense and the overall shootout potential of this game is dramatically increased by the presence of Roethlisberger and Claypool. Expect Big Ben to come out throwing and grab the ball Diontae Johnson ($ 18) who has 10 or more goals in six games this season while mixing claypool and deep looks James Washington ($ 13). While Roethlisberger has an average prediction in this competition, averaging only 13.8 Fantasy Points per game, he has an outside chance of top performance, especially if he’s able to get down to a few deep punches early on with Johnson or Claypool connect or find its narrow place ends Pat Freiermuth ($ 17) and Eric Ebron ($ 10) in the red area.
We can also be sure that the Steelers will be there Najee Harris ($ 30) ready for a ridiculous 415 touches this season. Although the Steelers’ offensive line is below average in almost all efficiency metrics, Harris ranks fourth for tackles avoided and sixth for running backs for fantasy points per game. Ranked # 1 in the NFL for Opportunity Share, Route Participation Rate, and Top 12 in Goalline Carry, Harris is a no-brainer superstar in both cash games and large field tournaments. The Chargers are last in the NFL in the yards allowed per rush attempt this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris is in a sticking point against the Chargers’ run-funnel defense. (AP Photo / Don Wright)
The Chargers have struggled lately after losing three of their last four games, with their only win coming on a walk-off field goal. At the very least, the Chargers have scored at least 20 points in every game this season and an average of 24.7 offensive points per game, 12th in the NFL. Justin Herbert ($ 33) doesn’t have an easy matchup, but the Steelers are far less than full defensively, having already ruled out safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, cornerback Joe Harden and the defensive end TJ Watt. With the Steelers lacking so much star power, we can more confidently project Herbert and his primary offensive weapons to meet expectations. Both Keenan Allen ($ 24) – which has seen a surge in goals in the past three weeks – and Mike Williams ($ 22) are suddenly in much better places than the matchup initially suggests. Williams has seen a massive drop in goals since week 5 when he saw a career high of 16. His salary hasn’t fully adjusted to his new, less promising role, but Williams has still seen five or more looks every game this season, which makes him a decent player, especially at tournaments. There is no concern for Austin disgust ($ 29) this matchup as it gets busy in the passing game when the Steelers defensive line clogs the running tracks. Ekeler has seen 5-10 goals in 67% of his starts this season.
[Play in Yahoo’s $75K Single Game Baller for PIT vs. LAC]
Here’s a quick rundown of which players would likely benefit most from different game flow scenarios.
Tight, low score game
-
Najee Harris
-
Austin disgust
-
Charger
-
Steelers
-
Keenan Allen
-
Justin Herbert
-
Diontae Johnson
Tight game with many goals
-
Diontae Johnson
-
Mike Williams
-
Keenan Allen
-
Najee Harris
-
Austin disgust
-
Justin Herbert
-
Chase Claypool
-
Pat Freiermuth
-
James Washington
-
Jared Cook
Blowout for home team
-
Austin disgust
-
Charger
-
Justin Herbert
-
Keenan Allen
-
Mike Williams
-
Najee Harris
-
Chase Claypool
Blowout for the away team
-
Najee Harris
-
Diontae Johnson
-
Chase Claypool
-
Ben Röthlisberger
-
Keenan Allen
-
Pat Freiermuth
-
Steelers
-
James Washington
Cheap / unique stacking options
Chargers ($ 13) and Jared Cook ($ 13)
The Chargers tacitly rank fourth among all defenses on the scheduled fantasy points, enemy attacks are allowed, and even with Ben Röthlisberger ($ 21) back, he allowed an average of 2.25 sacks and threw 0.5 interceptions per game, meaning the Chargers defense has enough advantage at this point to be considered for the superstar position. In the meantime, Jared Cook ($ 13) has averaged 4.8 goals per game in their last four starts and scored twice this season. This combination can be easily made with Austin disgust ($ 29) or Justin Herbert ($ 33) to create interesting mega-stacks of Chargers.
Low-salary volatile plays
James Washington ($ 13)
With Chase Claypool Inactive in Week 10, Washington played at a season high of 87.7% of the Snaps and scored six goals from Mason Rudolf, also a season high. Even though Chase Claypool will return this week, Washington should still get a lot of run, probably playing nearly 60% of the snaps, and might still see enough opportunity to pay off with the lowest salary for each primary passing contributor in both offenses.
Ray-Ray McCloud ($ 11)
McCloud saw a career high of 12 goals in Week 10, catching nine for 63 yards Mason Rudolf at the quarterback in Pittsburgh. McCloud usually plays a hybrid role as a gadget receiver, having averaged just 1.8 chances per game in the six contests prior to his breakout in week 10, but there’s always the possibility that he could play a more prominent role after a pretty strong week.
Superstar selection
Austin Disgust ($ 29)
Ekeler ranks 10th among all running backs for opportunity share, route participation rate, breakaway runs, and evaded tackles, and currently ranks second among all active running backs for fantasy points per game. Even against the above-average rush defense of the Steelers, Ekeler is a near lock for 18 opportunities and has multi-touchdown advantages if the Chargers take command of this game early on.
Keenan Allen ($ 24)
Allen has seen double-digit targets in three straight games and has exceeded 95 yards in consecutive competitions. Though his two overall touchdowns suggest otherwise, Allen also ranks fifth in the NFL with 15 goals within the 20-yard line, making him a strong positive regression candidate in the touchdown division.
Diontae Johnson ($ 18)
Johnson, the undisputed primary wide receiver in Pittsburgh, has seen exactly 13 goals in 50% of his games this season, like last weekend, and seen double-digit results in all but two weeks. The Chargers were strong in secondary this year, finishing 13th in the PFF team coverage class, but Johnson should see enough volume with Roethlisberger back on top to have a big game anyway.
This article originally appeared in its full form on 4for4.com
A mediocre athlete who was offered his first middle school sports analyst position, Matt has been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard creation, he loves using graphics and charts to communicate data to ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone.
More from 4for4.com: Yahoo’s Week 11 $ 1 Million Shooter and Cash Game Strategy
Stay on top with the accurate leaderboards, advanced tools, and data-driven content from 4for4 Fantasy Football.
Comments are closed.