Tim Benz: Tremendous Bowl predictions and bets to make Sunday fascinating – even with out Steelers

Unfortunately, the Pittsburgh Steelers fan team is not involved in the Super Bowl.

Once again.

This has been the case for a decade now.

But most of us in Pittsburgh will still be watching the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. So if you want some Super Bowl betting and predictions, I have a few.

No stupid things like the color of the Gatorade at the end of the game or how often Gisele Bundchen is depicted.

Actual soccer players.

The over-under for catches from all-pro Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce is 7.5 at -135. If you look at Kelce’s average per game in 2020, it’s 7.4 that counts the playoffs.

That’s not a huge potential payout given the number. But he had 21 in the two playoff games. And that’s the Super Bowl. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes will use it as often as necessary. So I make this bet.

The Chiefs Wide Receiver Tyreek Hill is between +1000 and +1200 to win the MVP in most of the stores I reviewed. Sure, if the Chiefs win, the award will likely go to Mahomes.

However, a few big games – especially scoring games – for Hill without much volume could turn heads. Think of Lynn Swann when the Steelers won Super Bowl X.

Lynn Swann finished with four catches for 161 yards and won him MVP honors.

Super Bowl X comes to # ️⃣4️⃣5️⃣ at the # NFL100 Greatest Games Countdown. pic.twitter.com/ZKbkybmxo1

– Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) September 28, 2019

I put this reference in this column just so I had an excuse to post this video with that music in the background. Yes. Yes I have. May I help you.

Hill also had 269 yards and three touchdowns in 13 catches against the Buccaneers during the regular season. Not to mention, he surpassed 100 yards in both playoff games.

I feel there is a good price-performance ratio there.

I see the same thing on the Tampa Bay sideline at +120 for Leonard Fournette to score a touchdown. If the Bucs get the ball within the five yard line, it gets a stretcher.

On this line of thought, Tom Brady likes to use his tight ends in the red zone. I could also see Rob Gronkowski or Cameron Brate score a touchdown.

As for the line and the over-under? I have seen that the distribution of points has dropped by three points to KC in some places and that a total of 56 points have been exceeded and undercut.

I said 31-28 chiefs for two weeks. So give me the end and let me buy a half point in favor of KC on the spread.

I’ve heard quite a few people try to get themselves into some commotion in Tampa Bay. One recurring theme is that Tampa’s offensive weapons are actually deeper than Kansas City’s and that the Bucs Pass rush could be a big problem for a battered Chiefs offensive line.

I agree with this logic. Especially the defensive part. After what I’ve seen in Green Bay and know Mahomes has a pesky toe injury and his line of scrimmage has been reconfigured, I can see Tampa Pass pop up with a few crucial sacks along the way.

After all, they had five against the Green Bay Packers last week. And their total of 48 sacks in 2020 were the fourth highest in the league.

I also agree that the privateers have a greater number of dangerous players at their disposal. However, I think the top three players in the game are all on the Kansas City side in Mahomes, Kelce and Hill. And I believe that the combination of those three will determine the outcome of the game.

At the very least, the defense required to slow them down will leave plenty of room for other Chiefs players.

That’s why I still see the Chiefs as the first team to repeat themselves as Super Bowl champions since Brady’s Patriots did so to complete the 2003 and 2004 seasons.

So again…

• Bosses through a field gate (31-28)

• Over 56 points

• Kelce +7.5 catches

• Hill for MVP

• Fournette scores a touchdown

Enjoy the game and mock me if I go 0 for 5 on my bets on Monday.

Tim Benz is a contributor to Tribune Review. You can contact Tim at tbenz@triblive.com or on Twitter. All tweets could be republished. All emails can be published unless otherwise stated.

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